Whole Ecosystems can collapse with a single extreme temperature event.
1. Global Warming and Wild Life Camille Parmesan Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin
2. * Global Temperatures are Rising * Plants and Animals are Changing WHERE they live and WHEN they live Global Average Temperature
3. How do we know a biological change is caused by climate? Correlational Patterns – Long-term patterns --- Does biological change match climate trends in direction and magnitude? – “natural experiments” --- does population respond to extreme weather events and climate years? Field Manipulations of temperature and fitness – impacts on behavior (foraging, mating) – impacts on growth and fecundity Laboratory Experiments – temperature survival thresholds
4. IPCC 2001: 8 Biological studies in USA
5. Pew report - USA only • 40 studies total – all would have qualified under IPCC criteria • “Strong evidence” = 21 studies > 237 species / functional groups Parmesan & Galbraith 2004
6. Butterflies want their body temperature to be ~ 100° F
7. Edith’s Checkerspot butterfly experiences frequent population extinctions in undisturbed habitats
8. Species’ range has shifted northward and upward during the 20th c. Most extinctions in south and at low elevations green = present purple = extinct Parmesan 1996
9. Warming Causes Asynchrony --- Extinctions • 2° C warming causes timing mis-match • Host plants dry up 3-7 days earlier, • caterpillars starve
10. False Springs Cause Extinctions
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12. Heavy snowpack at high elevations benefits populations by delaying flight season to peak summer heat
13. Shift in status - at diversity of latitudes Vagrants from Africa establish residency in Spain 1) Plain tiger (Danaus chrysippus) 1980 - 1st resident populations 1990s - evidence of many breeding populations Haeger, Shilap 1999 2) Desert orange tip (Colotis evagore) Specialist of hot micro-climates lab - needs 164 °d > 60° F lab - no evolution of hibernation field & lab - no switch of food Jordano et al. J. Biogeog. 1991
14. Shifts in Nationality: Multiple invasions Purple emperor (Apatura iris) 2 independent Pu r p l e Em p ero r 20 ° E invasions Fi nl a nd (A pa t ur a i r is ) 60° Esto n ia N 58° Sw e de n De n m ar k 1) 1900 - rare Denmark 1940s - common Denmark 1983 - Sweden (1st record) 2) 1991 - Finland from Baltics Ryrholm unpub.; Kaila & Kullberg pers. (1st in 50 years) Comm.; Henriksen & Kreutzer 1982
15. Texas Has 5 New Species of Tropical Butterflies • Tropical species are active year-around • No winter hibernation • Killed by freeze
16. Species have moved into USA from Central America & Caribbean Florida has new species of dragonflies Paulson 2001 Rufous hummingbird was migrant, now resident Hill et al. 1998
17. The Red fox has shifted its range north, threatening the Arctic fox Baffin Island: went north 600 mi / 30 yrs Hersteinsson & Macdonald 1992
18. Species Replacement: Antarctic Penguins • Ice-adapted Adelie – moving poleward • Warm-adapted Chinstrap & Gentoo – Arrived 20-50 years ago Smith et al. Bioscience 1999; Fraser et al. Polar Biol. 1992; Emslie et al. Ant. Science 1998
19. The toucan and other lowland tropical birds have moved uphill, threatening high elevation birds. Hydrology Sea-Ice Animals Plants Studies covering Studies using and glaciers large areas remote sensing
20. Pikas are Sensitive to Heat •live > 7,500 feet •Must forage > 9 x / day Smith 1974
21. Low Elevation Populations 9,000 ft Don’t Forage August Mid day 9,000 ft •Adults killed by May heat stress ( > 31° C in sun) •Foraging time 12,500 ft limited by August temperature Smith 1974
22. Upward shift of the pika • 7 / 25 populations have gone extinct since 1930s • Extinct populations were at lowest Beever et al. 2003 Ice Age Still present extinct
23. -- Spring is 2 weeks earlier and Fall is 2 weeks later -- Growing season extended by 3 weeks at high latitudes (where moisture available) (Northern Hemisphere temperate zone)
24. Estimated: More than Half of Wild Species have Responded to 20th c. Climate Change (>1500 species / species groups) Changed as Changed opposite Type of Analysis predicted to prediction P (n) (n) Phenological 87 % 13 % < .1 x10-12 N = 484 / (678) Distributional changes: At poleward/upper range boundaries 81 % 19 % At equatorial/lower range boundaries 75 % 25 % Community (abundance) changes: Cold-adapted species 74 % 26 % Warm-adapted species 91 % 9% N = 460 / (920) 81 % 19 % < .1 x10-12 Meta-analysis Range-boundaries (n=99) 6.1 km-m/decade .013 northward/upward shift Phenologies (n=172) 2.3 d/decade advancement < 0.05 Diverse species of: trees, herbs, shrubs, reptiles, amphibians, fish, marine zooplankton,marine invertebrates, mammals, birds butterflies (Parmesan & Yohe, Nature 2003)
25. Is this a Problem? Sooty copper (Heodes tityrus) Heode s 20 ° E Fi nl a nd t it yr us 60° Es t o ni a N Sw e de n 56° Invasion of Estonia Fra n c e 1998 - 1st record 42° Spa i n 1999 - breeding populations 40° 2002 - increase #populations Ca t al o nia & northward expansion 4° E Parmesan et al. 1999
26. Habitat loss coupled with climate change Quino checkerspot (E. editha quino) extinctions due to habitat loss healthy populations extinctions due to climate change
27. Extinction of the Golden toad in Costa Rica •Cloud forest species require mist •Population crashes followed years with unusually high #dry days, especially >5 dry (mist free) days in a row
28. Whole Ecosystems can collapse with single extreme temperature event Coral Reefs and extreme Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)
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32. In 1998, coral bleaching affected every part of the world’s oceans – reefs lost 95% of coral in Maldives, Western Australia, Okinawa and Palau. Aug 18 Feb 16% of living corals wiped off reefs in 1998.
33. Coral reefs are among the most biologically rich ecosystems on earth. 4,000 species of fish and 800 species of reef-building corals described
34. Global temperature over the past 65 million years 55 million years PRESENT 6 5 million years 10 million years 3.5 Million years 18,000 years 1 Million years 10,000 years 230,000 years 1,000 years 65 13 1, m 00 m ya 0 ya ya
35. Acknowledgements Raw data: D. Jordano, L Kaila, J Kullberg, J.J. Lennon, A. Menzel, N. Ryrholm,M.C. Singer, T. Tammaru, J. Tennent, C.D. Thomas, JA Thomas, M Warren * The Millennium Atlas of Butterflies in Britain and Ireland (Asher et al. 2001) * Field Guide to the Butterflies of Britain & Europe (Higgins & Riley 1970) * Atlas of Finnish Macrolepidoptera (Hulden et al. 2000) * The Butterflies of Scandinavia in Nature (Henriksen & Kreutzer 1982) * A World of Butterflies (Schappert 2000) Material and Images: Environmental Sciences Institute, University of Texas United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Kristina Schlegel (artist)
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37. First signs of positive feedbacks Shift in Alaskan tundra carbon balance: From sink to source 1980s 1990s/2000 Prudhoe Bay & Toolik Lake, AK Losing 40 gC/m2/year Oechel et al., Nature 2000
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